AA 1232 · DFW → PHX

departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 5:14 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±2 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1232 · DFW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?