Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1234 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 1234 · DFW → MKE

departs 9:10 PM CT · arrives 11:34 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MKE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

MKE (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1234 · DFW → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?