AA 1248 · DFW → JFK

departs 6:32 PM CT · arrives 11:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

79% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
29%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.74 in

JFK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1248 · DFW → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?