Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1253 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 1253 · ORD → SFO

departs 3:18 PM CT · arrives 5:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±10 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.23 in

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1253 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?