Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1273 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

AA 1273 · DFW → RNO

departs 10:32 PM CT · arrives 11:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

75% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
42%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

RNO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1273 · DFW → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?