AA 1280 · PHL → BNA

departs 3:46 PM ET · arrives 4:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
37%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1280 · PHL → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?