AA 1288 · ORD → RIC

departs 7:10 PM CT · arrives 10:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

74% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
44%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.76 in

RIC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1288 · ORD → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?