AA 1293 · ORD → PVD

departs 7:14 PM CT · arrives 10:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?

72% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PVD?

On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
30%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ PVD usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.75 in

PVD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1293 · ORD → PVD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVD?