Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1406 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AA 1406 · DFW → SAT

departs 8:48 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

86% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
13%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
23%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.20 in

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,567 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip6.53 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1406 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?