AA 1407 · DFW → IAH

departs 8:29 AM CT · arrives 9:47 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

72% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.94 in

IAH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1407 · DFW → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?