AA 1407 · IAH → DFW

departs 10:27 AM CT · arrives 11:52 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

75% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
30%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.19 in

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1407 · IAH → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?