AA 1437 · RNO → PHX

departs 12:54 PM PT · arrives 2:53 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1437 · RNO → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?