AA 1465 · FLL → PHL

departs 3:29 PM ET · arrives 6:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day

↑ 3pm departures from FLL are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip2.19 in

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1465 · FLL → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?