Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1489 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 1489 · PHL → SAN

departs 3:40 PM ET · arrives 6:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1489 · PHL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?