AA 1504 · DFW → LAX

departs 4:29 PM CT · arrives 5:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

77% chance · ±4 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
18%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
22%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LAX that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,033 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.15 in

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1504 · DFW → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?