AA 1520 · PVD → PHL

departs 6:09 AM ET · arrives 7:40 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PVD is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1520 · PVD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?