AA 1536 · PWM → PHL

departs 7:26 AM ET · arrives 9:14 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at PWM that day

↑ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1536 · PWM → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?