AA 1543 · ORD → SAN

departs 3:09 PM CT · arrives 5:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
22%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
40%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.92 in

SAN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1543 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?