AA 1564 · ORD → MCO

departs 7:11 AM CT · arrives 11:05 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.74 in

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1564 · ORD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?