AA 1568 · AUS → ORD

departs 6:33 PM CT · arrives 9:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

83% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
15%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
25%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.68 in

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.88 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1568 · AUS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?