AA 1573 · DFW → LAS

departs 3:27 PM CT · arrives 4:26 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
13%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
28%
Over 2 hours late
16%
Cancelled
22%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip2.26 in

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1573 · DFW → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?