AA 1622 · PHX → MCI

departs 8:44 AM MT · arrives 1:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility1 mi Precip2.71 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1622 · PHX → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?