AA 1664 · DFW → DSM

departs 1:19 PM CT · arrives 3:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

74% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
22%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
15%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,167 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.05 in

DSM (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1664 · DFW → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?