AA 1673 · PHL → MCO

departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 10:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1673 · PHL → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?