AA 1705 · LGA → RDU

departs 7:50 PM ET · arrives 9:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1705 · LGA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?