AA 1725 · ORD → PHL

departs 8:47 AM CT · arrives 12:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.93 in

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1725 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?