AA 1726 · AUS → ORD

departs 8:05 AM CT · arrives 11:05 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility8 mi Precip3.95 in

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.99 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1726 · AUS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?