AA 1728 · PHX → DTW

departs 8:57 AM MT · arrives 3:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DTW that day

↑ 8am departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,240 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1728 · PHX → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?