AA 173 · LHR → RDU

departs 12:01 PM BST · arrives 3:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

RDU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 173 · LHR → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?