AA 1754 · LAX → RDU

departs 9:15 AM PT · arrives 5:27 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1754 · LAX → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?