Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1786 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 1786 · DFW → DTW

departs 3:17 PM CT · arrives 6:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

DTW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,240 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1786 · DFW → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?