AA 1794 · DFW → SAN

departs 7:13 AM CT · arrives 8:32 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1794 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?