AA 1818 · ORD → PDX

departs 5:14 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.19 in

PDX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1818 · ORD → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?