AA 1822 · DFW → SBA

departs 10:04 AM CT · arrives 11:31 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
13%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

SBA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1822 · DFW → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?