AA 1837 · SFO → PHX

departs 3:56 PM PT · arrives 6:05 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1837 · SFO → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?