AA 1848 · ORD → PHL

departs 5:07 PM CT · arrives 8:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±3 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.96 in

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1848 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?