AA 1852 · AUS → DFW

departs 2:04 PM CT · arrives 3:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

89% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
8%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
29%
Cancelled
26%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip1.40 in

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1852 · AUS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?