AA 1866 · RSW → PHL

departs 5:56 PM ET · arrives 9:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 44 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ RSW usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts44 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.79 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1866 · RSW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?