AA 1888 · DFW → RDU

departs 2:46 PM CT · arrives 6:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

RDU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1888 · DFW → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?