AA 1889 · PHL → PWM

departs 9:00 PM ET · arrives 10:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PWM?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PWM (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1889 · PHL → PWM

Odds over time

How late will it get to PWM?