AA 1898 · ORD → JAC

departs 9:45 AM CT · arrives 12:05 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at JAC more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAC?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAC

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

JAC (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1898 · ORD → JAC

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAC?