AA 1916 · ORD → SNA

departs 11:58 AM CT · arrives 2:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SNA that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

SNA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1916 · ORD → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?