AA 1920 · ORD → SNA

departs 8:17 AM CT · arrives 10:39 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SNA that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.88 in

SNA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1920 · ORD → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?