Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1925 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 1925 · IAH → PHL

departs 4:27 PM CT · arrives 8:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

PHL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1925 · IAH → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?