AA 2009 · DFW → SEA

departs 7:32 PM CT · arrives 9:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

87% chance · ±0 pts +31 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
12%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
29%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, 6.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip5.38 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2009 · DFW → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?