AA 2015 · PHL → TPA

departs 10:35 AM ET · arrives 1:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2015 · PHL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?