Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2042 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 2042 · AUS → PHX

departs 12:04 PM CT · arrives 12:28 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.94 in

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2042 · AUS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?