AA 2046 · DFW → SJC

departs 9:25 AM CT · arrives 11:18 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

75% chance · ±0 pts +25 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
35%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.84 in

SJC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2046 · DFW → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?