AA 2058 · PHL → SAT

departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 8:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip4.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2058 · PHL → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?