AA 2078 · DFW → SMF

departs 11:46 AM CT · arrives 1:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, 6.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.19 in

SMF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2078 · DFW → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?